Bioinformatics Course Board
   
  [Common] The Doctor's Dilemma
  Writer : Seyeon Weon     Date : 10-02     Hit : 11032    
  트랙백 주소 : http://www.bioinformatics.pe.kr/gnuboard/bbs/tb.php/course/120
http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/32/6/910 에 원래 George
Bernard Shaw가 쓴 글이 새롭게 옮겨져 있습니다.  한 부분을 옮겨보면,


Even trained statisticians often fail to appreciate the extent to which
statistics are vitiated by the unrecorded assumptions of their
interpreters. Their attention is too much occupied with the cruder tricks of
those who make a corrupt use of statistics for advertising purposes. There
is, for example, the percentage dodge. In some hamlet, barely large enough
to have a name, two people are attacked during a smallpox epidemic. One
dies: the other recovers. One has vaccination marks: the other has
none. Immediately either the vaccinists or the anti-vaccinists publish the
triumphant news that at such and such a place not a single vaccinated person
died of smallpox whilst 100 per cent of the unvaccinated perished miserably;
or, as the case may be, that 100 per cent of the unvaccinated recovered
whilst the vaccinated succumbed to the last man. Or, to take another common
instance, comparisons which are really comparisons between two social
classes with different standards of nutrition and education are palmed off
as comparisons between the results of a certain medical treatment and its
neglect. Thus it is easy to prove that the wearing of tall hats and the
carrying of umbrellas enlarges the chest, prolongs life, and confers
comparative immunity from disease; for the statistics show that the classes
which use these articles are bigger, healthier, and live longer than the
class which never dreams of possessing such things. It does not take much
perspicacity to see that what really makes this difference is not the tall
hat and the umbrella, but the wealth and nourishment of which they are
evidence, and that a gold watch or membership of a club in Pall Mall might
be proved in the same way to have the like sovereign virtues. A university
degree, a daily bath, the owning of thirty pairs of trousers, a knowledge of
Wagner's music, a pew in church, anything, in short, that implies more means
and better nurture than the mass of labourers enjoy, can be statistically
palmed off as a magic-spell conferring all sorts of privileges.


이와 같은 문제는 늘 있어왔던 것이지만, 현재 omics적인 research에서는
그야말로 하늘을 온통 뒤덮은 먹구름처럼 어둡게 드리우고 있는 것입니다.
그리고, 위에 옮긴 글에서는 일부러 언급하지 않은 것을 강조를 했지만, 요즘
우리에게 일어나는 문제는 이런 식의 것이 아니라, 우리가 미처 알지도 못하는
데서 일어나는 것이라는 점입니다.  하지만, 적어도 이런 심각한 문제가 거의
항상 존재한다는 것을 인식을 하고서 연구를 수행하는 것이 중요한 점일
것입니다.  omics적인 연구에 있어서는, 바로 이러한 이유로 인해서 (그리고,
변수 또는 시도하는 횟수 등이 큰 수라는 점으로 인해서) "뭔가 그럴듯한 패턴"은
항상 나오게 됩니다.  문제는, 그 중에서 태반이 이처럼 의미 없는 단순
association일 따름이라는 것입니다.  지금 적은 것이 무슨 소린지 이해를 하는
것은 앞으로 제대로 "요즘 생물학"을 해내는데 있어서 매우 중요한 점입니다.